{"id":5983,"date":"2026-05-18T01:36:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T23:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lma\/index.php\/2026\/05\/18\/libya-shell-return-majors-fragmented-state\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T00:59:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T22:59:33","slug":"libya-shell-return-majors-fragmented-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mezghena.org\/index.php\/en\/2026\/05\/18\/libya-shell-return-majors-fragmented-state\/","title":{"rendered":"Libya: Shell and the return of the majors to a fragmented state"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Libya\u2019s oil never left the map of international desire. What changes is the timing, the language and the level of risk that foreign companies are ready to accept. The possible return of a major company such as Shell must therefore be read with caution. It may signal opportunity. It does not, by itself, signal state reconstruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The return of the majors does not end fragmentation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Foreign oil companies need contracts, security and export capacity. Libya offers reserves, proximity to Europe and strategic depth. But it also offers a fractured political field, contested institutions and infrastructures that have repeatedly been drawn into conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The major companies return to a country where sovereignty is still divided between competing authorities, armed balances and regional patrons. They can help restart production. They can also adapt to fragmentation instead of overcoming it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy sovereignty under constraint<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Oil sovereignty is not simply the ownership of underground resources. It is the capacity to decide, regulate, export, distribute revenues and prevent rent from feeding parallel circuits. In Libya, that capacity remains weakened by years of war and institutional rivalry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is why the return of foreign partners must be judged not by investment announcements alone, but by the institutions that frame them. Who signs? Who guarantees security? Who receives revenue? Who audits the flows?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe watches, Libyans pay the price<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Europe sees Libyan energy through the lens of supply, proximity and diversification. Libyans experience it through power cuts, unequal distribution and a state whose wealth has not produced stable public authority. The gap between external energy interest and internal sovereignty is the central contradiction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The return of the majors may become useful if it strengthens public capacity. If it merely reopens rent corridors in a fragmented state, it will confirm an old lesson: oil can finance sovereignty, but it can also finance its decomposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Sources utilis\u00e9es<\/h2>\n\n\n